https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/ Recent content in A Corner for Blogs and Posts on Probability Space Hugo -- gohugo.io en Sat, 11 Sep 2021 00:00:00 +0000 https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/sohom-blog-1/ Sat, 11 Sep 2021 00:00:00 +0000 https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/sohom-blog-1/ Coincidence Statistics - A Non-Formal Approach to Probability! As Maxwell puts it straight : “The true logic of this world is in the calculus of probabilities”. When we talk literature, we mean literature only. No need to bring up bookish terms to define probability! To put this in a simpler way, think of the following scenario : Suppose some dark night a policeman walks down a street, apparently deserted; but suddenly he hears a burglar alarm, looks across the street, and sees a jewellery store with a broken window. https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/uttaran-blog-2/ Fri, 10 Sep 2021 00:00:00 +0000 https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/uttaran-blog-2/ Human revolutionized and extended her/is restrictions on perception to natural phenomenon, when s/he started thinking about chances. We already know what crucial roles chances play when we cross the road on a busy traffic or while playing a game of 29 (card game), you show a card expecting your opponent doesn’t show the joker (card with highest points) of the same color. Hold on ! did I say “expecting”? So how about discussing a problem on how we actually quantify what we are actually expecting when uncertainty is playing her mighty tricks ? https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/uttaran-blog-3/ Thu, 09 Sep 2021 00:00:00 +0000 https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/uttaran-blog-3/ “It is a very tedious task !! First you have to calculate where he is and where is is not, then you must calculate where he could possibly be, then you must seek where he is at this moment, then finally you have to calculate the probability that what is the chance of finding him when you reach, where you are suspecting him to be right now." - Sukumar Ray in his Novel : “Utter Nonsense”(Ho-Jo-Bo-Ro-Lo) https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/sohom-blog-4/ Wed, 08 Sep 2021 00:00:00 +0000 https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/sohom-blog-4/ “Geometry is not true, it is advantageous." - Henri Poincare Yes , exactly… it’s time to merge the two stalwarts together : “Geometry” and “Probability”. The Probability Measure of Geometrical Elements In probability theory one is usually concerned with random variables which are quantities, or sets of quantities, taking values in some set of possibilities on which there is defined a non-negative measure, satisfying certain required conditions which enable us to interpret it as a probability. https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/sohom-blog-5/ Tue, 07 Sep 2021 00:00:00 +0000 https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/sohom-blog-5/ This post discusses about the history of frequentism and how it was an unperturbed concept till the advent of Bayes. It sheds some light on the trending debate of frequentism vs bayesian thinking. “The probable is that which for the most part happens” - “Rhetoric”, Aristotle. Frequentism Hopefully this example will be able to explicate the true sense of the word: Suppose, I have misplaced my phone somewhere in my home. https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/uttaran-blog-6/ Mon, 06 Sep 2021 00:00:00 +0000 https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/uttaran-blog-6/ This post discusses how judgments can be quantified to probabilities, and how the degree of beliefs can be structured with respect to the available evidence in decoding uncertainty leading towards Bayesian Thinking. The object of reasoning is to find out, from the consideration of what we already know, something else, which we do not know. Consequently, reasoning is good if it be such as to give a true conclusion from premises, and not otherwise. https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/sohom-blog-7/ Sun, 05 Sep 2021 00:00:00 +0000 https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/sohom-blog-7/ This explores the unsung sector of probability : “Nonconglomerability” and its effects on conditional probability. This also emphasizes the idea of how important is the idea countable additivity or extending finite additivity to infinite sets. “I believe that we do not know anything for certain, but everything probably.”~ Christiaan Huygens One week into conditional probability, it’s time to get our hands dirty with the Law of Total Probability and paradoxes which have emerged out of it. https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/uttaran-blog-8/ Sat, 04 Sep 2021 00:00:00 +0000 https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/uttaran-blog-8/ This is a post, centralized on the evolution of Bayesian Thinking and Inverse Inferences, in Probability Theory, which actually changed Statistics from a tool of Data interpretation to Causal Science. “When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do, sir?” - John Maynard Keynes In the climax of our last discussion, I kept my discussion about the Jelly-bean example incomplete to begin here afresh. (If you haven’t read that, you can read it before we start, here it is Judgements in a Fitful Realm. https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/uttaran-blog-9/ Fri, 03 Sep 2021 00:00:00 +0000 https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/uttaran-blog-9/ In this post, we will be discussing mainly, Naive Bayes Theorem, and how Laplace, developed the same idea as Bayes, independently and his law of succession go. “I cannot conceal the fact here that in the specific application of these rules, I foresee many things happening which can cause one to badly mistaken if he does not proceed cautiously” - James Bernoulli. While watching a cricket match we often, try to predict what may happen in the next ball, and several time, we guess it correctly, I don’t know much about others, but my predictions very often turns out to be true, even to the extent that, if I say, " may be Next ball will be an out-side edge caught behind by the keeper" and such thing really happens withing next 2 or 3 balls if not the immediate next ball. https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/srijit-blog-10/ Thu, 02 Sep 2021 00:00:00 +0000 https://probability-space.netlify.app/blog/srijit-blog-10/ This article teaches how to mathematically find the length of an earphone wire by its picture. Let’s explore some truths. A Line is made up of Points. A Curve is made up of Lines. Earphones are as Messy. This article is all about connecting these three truths to a topic in Probability Theory intersection Geometry, which is not so famous among peers, yet its' usefulness has led one to make an app in Google Play Store, which has only one download (by me).